Captain Marvels Opening Weekend is almost here
In no way, am I surprised that the box office revenue is down in 2019. There has not been a standout film that will bring out a wide audience. Many of the trailers for films releasing in January, February, and March were not met with a warm reception. Despite a downward trend, there is one film that will be the catalyst into the second quarter of 2019.
All eyes are on Marvel Studios, Captain Marvel, to shake up the box office in early March. Many pundits have lambasted the trailers for Captain Marvel for silly reasons. Some of these criticisms have no ground to stand on - the critics are ignoring the synopsis for the film, character, and the acting abilities of Brie Larson. "She doesn't smile." "Brie Larson can't do this as an actress." These are the same criticisms, from the same pundits on the internet, that didn't believe Wonder Woman would be successful.... Wonder Woman would go on to make $820 Million at the box office.
I won't be surprised when Captain Marvel proves these critics wrong. The Hollywood Reporter is guessing that Captain Marvel will open to $120+ Million. This estimate is too conservative. Time and time again, we get early estimates of the box office performance of many major films. Marvel Studios films are notorious for going through a tug of war of the opening weekend estimates...
Just over a year ago Black Panther was being had opening weekend estimates of $140+ Million. The three day total for Black Panther would finish around $196 Million dollars. Looking back at the data, Black Panther made $242 Million dollars over four days. Black Panther is a good comparison to predicting Captain Marvels Box Office for a few reasons.
Currently, I predict Captain Marvel will have a $168.5+ Million Dollar Opening Weekend. I might update the OW prediction after the social media embargo for Captain Marvel ends. I won't make a prediction for the domestic gross until either 1) The next Avengers Endgame trailer is released or 2) the full review embargo is lifted. I'm looking forward to seeing Captain Marvel on March 8th!
Check out the first trailer for Captain Marvel below:
All eyes are on Marvel Studios, Captain Marvel, to shake up the box office in early March. Many pundits have lambasted the trailers for Captain Marvel for silly reasons. Some of these criticisms have no ground to stand on - the critics are ignoring the synopsis for the film, character, and the acting abilities of Brie Larson. "She doesn't smile." "Brie Larson can't do this as an actress." These are the same criticisms, from the same pundits on the internet, that didn't believe Wonder Woman would be successful.... Wonder Woman would go on to make $820 Million at the box office.
I won't be surprised when Captain Marvel proves these critics wrong. The Hollywood Reporter is guessing that Captain Marvel will open to $120+ Million. This estimate is too conservative. Time and time again, we get early estimates of the box office performance of many major films. Marvel Studios films are notorious for going through a tug of war of the opening weekend estimates...
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| Theatrical Poster for Captain Marvel |
Just over a year ago Black Panther was being had opening weekend estimates of $140+ Million. The three day total for Black Panther would finish around $196 Million dollars. Looking back at the data, Black Panther made $242 Million dollars over four days. Black Panther is a good comparison to predicting Captain Marvels Box Office for a few reasons.
- This is a Marvel Studios solo film and it's not a traditional origin story. We didn't see how T'Challa got his powers, but we got the opportunity the understand the consequences of this power. Captain Marvel is rumored to be drawing inspiration from Robocop. If this film picks up a good buzz, it might bring an older, "unexpected" audience to the box office, the same way Black Panther brought in the "unexpected" black moviegoers to theaters.
- This is the first time Marvel Studios will release a film with a female lead. Many thought Black Panther was a risk and similar arguments about the success of Captain Marvel are being made. Captain Marvel is a somewhat unknown character to the larger audience, but I do think that trend will change if shes featured prominently in the next trailer for Avengers: Endgame.
- Disney is spending huge dollars and marketing this film everywhere, Disney gave the second trailer a prime release during Monday Night Football in early December. In terms of media value, you can make a fair comparison to the premiere of the Black Panther Teaser Trailer which aired during Game 4 of a lackluster NBA Finals. They both had SuperBowl trailers, too.
Currently, I predict Captain Marvel will have a $168.5+ Million Dollar Opening Weekend. I might update the OW prediction after the social media embargo for Captain Marvel ends. I won't make a prediction for the domestic gross until either 1) The next Avengers Endgame trailer is released or 2) the full review embargo is lifted. I'm looking forward to seeing Captain Marvel on March 8th!
Check out the first trailer for Captain Marvel below:
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